The year was 1940, and the Royal Air Force was taking heavy casualties from German fighter planes. Desperate to improve aircraft survivability, they turned to statistical analysis for answers. By mapping all the bullet holes on returning aircraft, they could pinpoint where bombers needed heavier armor reinforcement. Logical enough.
However, doing so solely based on planes that survived battle provided incomplete and highly biased data. Mathematical statistician Abraham Wald realized the critical insight they were missing – to also examine planes that were shot down, which would show weak spots the surviving planes managed to avoid! The downed planes showed where additional armor was needed, and without looking at destroyed bombers, survivorship bias had sabotaged their initial analysis.
This story from World War 2 exemplifies survivorship bias – our tendency to focus on survivors of a process while inadvertently overlooking failures and non-survivors containing vital insights. Also called “success bias,” in humans, this cognitive blind spot likely evolved from pattern recognition instincts prizing visible wins/rewards over less visible losses/risks. And we still slip into the bias unconsciously today.
Say we mistakenly believe entrepreneurial success stems from sharp decision-making because we exclusively study triumphant billionaires like Steve Jobs or Oprah. Meanwhile, businesses failing early on never grab headlines nor mindshare for us to analyze their mistakes, some key precipice between fame and failure.
Or perhaps we falsely assume fantastic investment acumen by gazing only at today’s top mutual fund performances while neglecting all the funds closing down over five years. The survivors on top at any snapshot often ride more luck than skill (until inevitable regression hits). Yet our bias focuses only on their current spoils, self-deceiving our flawed beliefs in their talent.
How does this apply to building your career? Survivorship bias manifests anytime you judge your progress based on the visible promotions, acclaim, and rewards others seem to achieve rather than your actual growth. Be careful...
Focusing only on colleagues advancing fastest while mentally banishing “losers” risks falsely equating speed with superiority. Growth trajectories differ, with late bloomers equally positioned to contribute. And by studying those struggling, you gain wisdom, ensuring your own sustained success.
Like the RAF planes, your “bullet hole patterns” won’t match those of peers who faced different constraints along their journey. The only guarantee comes from continually learning, including from fallen comrades.
So, monitor survivorship bias in yourself. Spotlight insights from non-survivors: peers changing course, leaving teams or companies, or approaching tasks differently than you. Herein lies rich guidance and self-awareness so you can navigate uncertainty and setbacks when (not if) you also encounter them. After all, no career continuously climbs without corrections, just like no plane avoids all enemy fire. Charting your authentic path means mapping the whole terrain, survivors and casualties included.
